MCX Gold Slips Even As Rupee Falls

Gold......

Domestic gold futures on Multi Commodity Exchange slipped today even though the Rupee appreciated and the international gold futures surged.

MCX October gold futures are trading down nearly Rs 20 at Rs 28038 per 10 grams extending yesterday’s losses of more after than 1%. The counter may find support near Rs 27900 and Rs 27750 levels.

The rupee today dropped by 28 paise to 60.68 in late morning deals on the back of a strengthening of the US currency overseas despite a recovery in the equity market. The rupee resumed lower at 60.70 per dollar as against the last closing level of 60.40 at the Interbank Foreign Exchange (Forex) market and dropped further to 60.84.

In the global market, a key gauge of the dollar's performance rose in the early trade, clawing back from multi-week lows suffered after the US Federal Reserve offered no clues as to when it plans to slow the pace of monetary stimulus.

A key gauge of the U.S. dollar’s performance rose on Thursday, clawing back from multi-week lows suffered after the U.S. Federal Reserve offered no clues as to when it plans to slow the pace of monetary stimulus.

The ICE dollar index, which tracks greenback’s movement against six rivals, rose to 81.715, up from 81.464 late Wednesday in North America. The euro on Thursday fell to $1.3272, down from $1.3332 on Wednesday, and the British pound declined to $1.5162 from $1.5248.

Policy decisions were due from both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England later Thursday. Improving economic data can bolster the view that the Fed is moving closer to slowing the pace of asset purchases. The monthly jobs report due Friday marks the last key piece of U.S. data for this week

International gold futures are trading up $ 4.9 at $ 1317.9 per ounce on the COMEX division of New York Mercantile Exchange. However the metal continued to face resistance near $1350 levels.

Source by Commodity Insights

Copper Rises Amid Supportive Cues From US And China

MCX Copper

futures continued to edge higher today, as global cues remained supportive. Asian stocks edged up on a decent uptick in US GDP yesterday and lack of any further taper talk from the US Federal Reserve also supported sentiments. Copper has been strained on worries posed by Chinese demand slowdown in last few days but witnessed a good recovery this week with three week lows around $3.04 auguring as good support levels. COMEX copper is up 0.37% at $3.130 per pound right now.

The US Federal Reserve stated yesterday that the information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June suggests that economic activity expanded at a modest pace during the first half of the year. Labor market conditions have shown further improvement in recent months, on balance, but the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment advanced, and the housing sector has been strengthening, but mortgage rates have risen somewhat and fiscal policy is restraining economic growth. The US economy grew at an annualised rate of 1.7% in the second quarter of 2013, largely in line with the expectations after the recent surge in housing and consumer confidence data.

Meanwhile, today, China's manufacturing PMI improved slightly from 50.1 in June to 50.3 in July, but was still close to the neutral level of 50. The July reading indicates that the growth momentum of China's manufacturing sector has stayed weak, according to the National Bureau of Statistics and China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing. Ten of the twelve sub- indices were higher than their respective levels in the previous month. The rise in the headline PMI in July was largely due to the accelerating growth of output.

The US dollar has come off its six week low against the Euro and could gain further ahead of the monetary policy meetings of the ECB and the BOE. However, copper is placed rather well given the US GDP figures and Chinese manufacturing data. Unless the US dollar launches a massive rally, the metal should hold on. MCX Copper futures broke above Rs 420 per kg levels yesterday and currently trade at Rs 421.90, up Rs 0.35 per kg on the day.

Source by Commodity Insights

Economic Buzz: Japan's Manufacturing Growth Slows In July

Manufacturing sector growth in Japan moderated in July, a survey by Markit Economics showed Wednesday. The seasonally adjusted Markit/JMMA purchasing managers' index, that measures performance of the factory sector, fell to 50.7 in July from June's 28-month high of 52.3. PMI readings above 50 indicate expansion of the sector, while readings below 50 suggest contraction.

New orders increased for a fifth month running in July. New export orders also increased, but the pace of growth slowed since June. Both input and output prices increased in July, the survey found.

Source by Commodity Insights

Oil Inches Up Ahead Of Fed; Jobs

Oil.......

Crude oil futures inched up on value buying in the Asia electronic session today after the commodity tumbled to the lowest level in more than three weeks yesterday as traders awaited a reading on U.S. economic growth and an update on the Federal Reserve's stimulus measures.

Light, sweet crude futures for delivery in September are trading up 22 cents at $ 103.30 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Light, sweet crude for September delivery settled $1.47, or 1.4%, lower at $103.08 a barrel its lowest finish since July 3.

In the economic front today, Japan's manufacturing grew at a slower pace this month, though still registered expansion, according to the Markit/JMMA Japan manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index, released Wednesday. The headline index fell to 50.7 from June's 52.3, but remained above the 50 level -- the dividing line between growth and contraction -- for the fifth straight month.

Chinese stocks rose Wednesday after state media said the Communist Party's politburo vowed to keep economic growth steady in the second half of the year despite what it said were "extremely complicated domestic and international conditions." The Xinhua news report Tuesday carrying the statement didn't specify a growth level that it would defend. China's gross domestic product rose 7.7% in the first quarter and 7.5% in the second quarter.

The American Petroleum Institute reported a decline in U.S. inventories in its separate survey released late Tuesday. The industry group said crude stockpiles last week declined 740,000 barrels.

Investors are likely to remain cautious ahead of the second-quarter gross domestic product data and Fed statement Wednesday. The weekly crude stockpiles data is also due Wednesday. On Friday, traders will shift their focus to the Labor Department's closely watched nonfarm payrolls for the month of July. The release will offer clues on the health of the U.S. jobs market.

MCX August crude oil futures may open today’s session near Rs 6280 levels with resistance near Rs 6315-30 levels.

Source by Commodity Insights

Technical Comment For Day: Crude Oil

Oil........

Crude Oil settled at Rs 6251 per barrel, up 0.84%. The prices are shaping on the lower side similar to the open interest that is dipping with every passing session. The decline in open interest is an indicator that the path of Crude will become more skewed between upside and downside. The support for Crude is at Rs 6150, which is also its trend line support, intact from 9 July 2013.

Source by Commodity Insights

Oil Extends Losses In Asia

Oil.......

Crude oil futures slipped below $105 a barrel in the Asia electronic session today pressured by strength in the US dollar. The energy commodity is also undermined by growing concerns over the outlook for energy demand in China, ahead of manufacturing data from China and a statement on monetary policy from the U.S. Federal Reserve due this week.

Crude oil for September delivery is trading down 24 cents at $104.31 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Yesterday, it fell 15 cents, or 0.1%, to settle at $104.55 a barrel. On Friday, the contract fell 79 cents to $104.70 a barrel.

The ICE dollar index, a gauge of the greenback’s movement against six other major currencies, rose to 81.711, up from 81.663 late Monday in North America. The euro bought $1.3260, little changed from $1.3263, while the British pound fell to $1.5339 from $1.5349.

On the data front today, Japan's industrial production took an unexpectedly sharp drop in June, falling a seasonally adjusted 3.3% from May, though manufacturers offered an upbeat outlook for the current month, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry reported Tuesday.

Meanwhile, Japanese consumer spending made a surprise downturn in June, though the unemployment rate eased in the same month, the Finance Ministry reported Tuesday. Spending by households of two or more people fell 0.4% on a price-adjusted basis compared to a year earlier. On a brighter note, the unemployment rate eased to 3.9% in June -- an almost five-year low.

MCX August crude oil futures may open today’s session near Rs 6240 per barrel with support around Rs 6190 levels.

Energy investors have a busy week of economic updates to consider, including the first look at second-quarter growth in the U.S. and more manufacturing data from China for July. Last week, oil prices suffered their first weekly loss in five weeks after HSBC data showed manufacturing activity in China fell to an 11-month low in July.

A statement on monetary policy is due from the Fed on Wednesday, followed by statements Thursday from the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. The markets will watch for any language from the Fed that hints at the timing of when it will start tapering monetary stimulus. The central bank’s bond-buying program, part of a strategy to encourage economic growth, currently runs at $85 billion a month.

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Hot Commodities: Natural Gas Tumbles Near Six Month Lows

The US Natural Gas futures tumbled to near their six-month lows today as traders continued to sell the commodity amid a weak global economic backdrop. Prices have also been hit in the last few days on ideas that after predictions that most of the eastern U.S. will see seasonal temperatures, with lower readings in the Midwest. Today, the benchmark US contract slipped nearly 2% to quote at $3.497 per mmbtu as Asian stocks were pushed lower.

Natural Gas stockpiles rose by 41 billion cubic feet last week to 2.786 trillion, below the five-year average gain of 53 billion for the period, an EIA report yesterday showed. A deficit to the historic average widened to 1.6 percent from 1.2 percent the previous week. Inventories were 12.5 percent below year-earlier levels, compared with 13.1 percent in last week's report.

However, the commodity could turn up on updates regarding Tropical Storm Dorian. The storm is currency on the east of the northern Leeward Islands and is moving west-northwest and may be over the southern Bahamas early July 31. The storm has maximum winds of 50 miles per hour and is expected to weaken a bit in the next day or so, the center said.

For the time being though, bearish moves engulf the commodity quite vehemently. Asian stocks have tumbled heavily, down around 1-2% with Nikkei being slammed by nearly two and half percent. MCX Natural Gas is quoting at Rs 208.70, down 2% with a massive 8.8% increase in open interest.

A deficit to the historic average widened to 1.6 percent from 1.2 percent the previous week. Inventories were 12.5 percent below year-earlier levels, compared with 13.1 percent in last week's report.

Source by Commodity Insights

Commodities Buzz: US Timberland Index Up 9% In First Half Of Year

Returns on US forestry surged to their highest since the global economic crisis, and are poised for further gains, despite setbacks to hopes for housebuilding, a key destination for lumber. A timberland index compiled by National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (Ncreif) showed a gain of 9.36% in the year to the end of June, the highest figure since autumn 2008, as the world was falling into slump.

The second quarter rise in US interest rates and the 9% drop in overall US housing starts triggered a slight downward adjustment in forecasts for housing demand for the remainder of 2013, the council said.

However, Ncreif notes that expectations are still on track for housing starts to climb north of 950,000 starts for 2013, a strong improvement after 2012's 780,000 starts. As the economy and housing markets continue to improve, the timber fund index should continue to see positive results.

The returns from timberland are well below those of 20.0% from farmland over the past year, but unlike agricultural property are on a rising annual trend, on Ncreif data.

Source by Commodity Insights

COMEX Gold Well Under $1330 Levels

Gold......

Gold

slipped well under $1330 per ounce today, not being able to hold onto its recent gains as traders resorted to profit selling ahead of the weekends. The metal witnessed a similar movement yesterday as well. The overall movement in global stocks is mixed today and gold is quoting at $1325.40, down $3.40 per ounce on the day.

Yesterday, a large increase in aircraft bookings during June drove orders for new U.S.-made durable goods up by 4.2%, the third straight large monthly gain. However, because of the volatile nature of the main component driving the headline index higher, traders continued to maintain a cautious stance on the economy. US stocks had another lackluster day amid disappointing earnings reports.

Dollar lost out yesterday and slipped further today, nearing its five week low against the Euro as Eurozone's leading economic index moved up 0.5 percent on a monthly basis to 107.5 in June, marking the third successive growth. The index increased for the third successive month in June, adding to hopes that the recession-stricken economy would recover in the second half, data from a survey by the Conference Board showed today.

The weakness in dollar could support gold. The metal has witnessed some good bargain hunting in last few days, with a break above $1300 per ounce keeping sentiments supported. The MCX Gold futures slipped towards Rs 27000 end edged up before giving up yet again today. The counter quotes at Rs 27390, down Rs 14 per 10 grams on the day. Prices had dropped to a low near Rs 27300 earlier in the session.

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Copper Mired In Tentative Trades As China Cuts Overproduction Capacities

Copper......

MCX Copper

futures are trading in a tentative manner as global copper prices continued to feel the pressure of weak Chinese demand. The global equities also mostly slipped today amid flat overnight cues from the US equities and COMEX Copper continued to ease from its six-week highs. The metal is quoting down 0.36% at $3.1740 per pound in the electronics trading right now.

China's government has ordered companies to close factories in 19 industries where overproduction has led to price-cutting wars, affirming its determination to push ahead with a painful economic restructuring despite slowing growth. The industry ministry issued orders late Thursday to more than 1400 companies to cut excess capacity that has led to financial trouble for manufacturers. It also applies to producers of copper and glass and requires some companies to close outright.

China's manufacturing activity slowed to an 11-month low in July, the first evidence of the Asian economic giant losing further momentum in third quarter. In a survey published today, British banking giant HSBC said its preliminary purchasing managers' index (PMI) hit 47.7 this month, down from a final 48.2 in June and the lowest since August. The index tracks manufacturing activity in China's factories and workshops and is a closely watched gauge of the health of the economy. A reading below 50 indicates slowdown, while anything above signals expansion.

The growth in the second largest economy in world has slipped to decade low of around 7.5% and has kept a lid on copper prices over last one and half years. Rising inventories and a surplus in global market have also had a depressing effect. ICSG has reported earlier this week that the world copper markets were in surplus of 50000 tonnes in April 2013. After making seasonal adjustments, the Copper markets were in production surplus of 106000 tonnes. The world copper markets were in surplus of 266000 tonnes in the first four months of 2013.

Caterpillar Inc released disappointing second-quarter earnings on Wednesday. The industrial giant stated that it expects the global economy to grow by just a little more than 2% in 2013, slowing slightly from a pace of around 3% last year. Recovery from the financial crisis in 2009 has been very slow by historic standards. Governments and central banks have consistently overestimated inflation problems and underestimated the need for economic growth, says the company.

Copper gained mildly yesterday, cutting losses amid dollar weakness but the rise was capped amid flat US stock markets and a not very impressive data. Orders for big-ticket US manufactured goods rose 4.2 per cent in June, which was higher than expected, but the increase was driven by transportation equipment orders, a typically volatile item. The MCX Copper futures are trading in a tight range today. The counter is quoting at Rs 415.20, down Rs 2.30 per kg on the day with a massive 8% increase in the open interest.

Source by Commodity Insights

Oil Holds Gains In Asia

Oil......

Crude oil futures held on to its gains near $ 105 a barrel levels in the Asia electronic trades today buoyed by the positive data from US. Positive economic news tends to boost oil prices since it raises expectations about improvement in energy demand. Data Thursday showed a 4.2% jump in U.S. durable-goods orders for June, the third straight big monthly gain. The first estimate of second-quarter gross domestic product in the U.K. showed 0.6% quarterly growth, in line with expectations. Crude oil for September delivery is trading up 6 cents at $ 105.55 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Yesterday, it added 10 cents, or 0.1%, to end at $105.49 a barrel after touching a low of $104.08 in electronic trading. Oil prices on Wednesday fell 1.7% after an HSBC report showed preliminary manufacturing activity in China — among the world’s largest oil consumers. Taking a look at the long term, the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s International Energy Outlook report on Thursday released a forecast that world energy consumption will grow by 56% between 2010 and 2040 to 820 quadrillion British thermal units from 524 quadrillion Btus. Most of the growth will come from countries that aren’t part of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. The EIA didn’t release an international energy outlook report in 2012. In 2011, it said it expected world energy consumption to grow by 53% from 2008 to 2035. On the data front today, Japan's consumer prices managed to register mild inflation in June compared with a year earlier, data out Friday from the Finance Ministry showed. The core consumer price index, which excludes volatile fresh-food costs, rose 0.4% from June 2012, though it was unchanged compared to May's levels. MCX August crude oil futures may open today’s session near Rs 6235 levels with support around Rs 6200 and resistance near Rs 6290 levels. Source by Commodity Insights

Economic Buzz: Euro Zone Stabilizes As July PMI Rises

The Markit Euro zone PMI  Composite output index rose above the 50.0no-change level in July for the first time since January 2012 , according to theflash estimate. The PMI rose for the fourth successive month, up from 48.7 inJune to 50.4. Manufacturers reported the largest monthly increase in outputsince June 2011, registering an expansion for the first time since February oflast year. Service sector activity meanwhile fell only marginally, recording thesmallest decline in the current 18- month sequence and showing signs of stabilizingafter the marked rates of decline seen earlier in the year. Services PMI rose to49.6, from 48.3 in the preceding month.

Source by Commodity Insights

Gold Steady; US Data On Tap

Gold......

Gold

futures traded steady near $1340 an ounce levels in the early Europe session today with the US manufacturing and the home sales data on tap later today.

Gold for August delivery advanced $7.1 at $1,341.8 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The moves came ahead of a preliminary reading of U.S. manufacturing activity in July, with the report from Markit to mark the first national reading on manufacturing for the month. Also later Wednesday, the U.S. Commerce Department is expected to report a rise in sales of new homes in June.

Metals investors have keeping close tabs on economic data as the U.S. Federal Reserve assesses its next move on monetary stimulus that’s aimed at encouraging growth and has been considered beneficial for gold prices.

Gold prices have climbed more than 9% in July in part on speculation the Fed may continue with its current amount of stimulus for longer than anticipated. Last week, Federal Chairman Ben Bernanke said it was too early to determine whether the central bank will slow down the pace of asset purchases — now set at $85 billion a month — at its September meeting.

The base metals and crude oil futures lost ground on the heels of a weak reading for manufacturing activity in China.

US light sweet crude oil futures are trading down 3 cents at $ 107.20 per barrel in the mid electronic trades today.

September copper futures fell 3 cents, or 0.8%, to $3.17 a pound after the so-called “flash” version of HSBC’s Chinese manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index dropped to an 11-month low, at 47.7. Copper prices in July have gained 3.8%, but have dropped 13% on a year-to-date basis.

Prices of silver which has dual role as industrial and precious metals were able to gain ground on Wednesday. September silver rose 4 cents, or 0.2%, to $20.29 an ounce.

Source by Commodity Insights

Technical Comment For The Day: Crude

Crude........

Swings between gains and losses are set to continue in Crude oil. The prices settled at Rs 6393 per barrel on Tuesday. Last session saw Crude oil testing a high of Rs 6407 and a low of Rs 6322 per barrel. The prices are already in an overbought zone and rallies from here will be full of friction. However a safe approach of buying the Crude Oil is on its lows. Ascending triangle pattern is in the making but the confirmation of breach of resistance is yet to be received.

Trading Strategy: SELL MCX Crude AT 6380-90 TARGET 6325 SL 6410

Source by Commodity Insights

MCX Gold jumps more than Rs 600

Gold........

MCX Gold futures jumped well above Rs 27000 per 10-gram levels today as traders eyed a strong surge in global prices and plenty of fresh buying emerged on the first trading session of the week. The global markets turned in mostly a positive performance while US dollar was mostly mixed. The COMEX Gold futures broke above $1300 per ounce on a conclusive basis and currently trade at their one month high of $1319.80, up $26.90 per ounce on the day.

Gold jumped more than 1% last week, cutting back its losses after U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said in congressional testimony that the central bank had no set timetable for slowing its monetary stimulus. The stimulus measures, known as quantitative easing, have been considered supportive for gold prices. Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission for the week ended July 16 showed a decline in gold gross speculative short positions from an all-time high in the previous week.

The overall global economic backdrop remains supportive for gold. Debt levels of the 17 European Union countries that use the euro have hit all-time highs in the first quarter of this year, keeping the worries hanging over the state of finances in the troubled monetary union. Eurostat, the EU's statistics office, says Monday that government debt as a proportion of the total annual gross domestic product of the Eurozone pushed up to a record 92.2% in the first quarter of 2013 from 90.6% the previous quarter.

European stocks have come off their highs but gold seems oblivious to these moves. COMEX Gold is looking strong ahead of the New York floor trading and could gain further. MCX Gold futures for August opened higher and raced away. After a brief consolidation around Rs 27150 per 10-gram levels, the contract yet again jumped in the afternoon. Prices hit a high of Rs 27370 per 10 grams and currently linger at Rs 27328, up more than Rs 600 or 2.30% on the day. Open interest in the counter is up 12% on the day.
Source by Commodity Insights

Copper Moves Higher Following Chinese Imports Data

Copper.......

Data of Chinese Copper concentrate imports led metals to trade higher on LME as well as domestic markets. The markets ignored the fact that International Copper Study Group (ICSG) has reported a surplus in the month of April 2013. The data release has come at the time when ICSG has reported decline in copper usage in China, by 7 percent.
General Administration of Customs showed that China Copper concentrate imports were 673518 tonnes, up 40.23 percent in June, compared to same period last year. The total imports in the month of January-June 2013, was 4463111, up 32 percent.
Meanwhile, ICSG reported that the world copper markets were in surplus of 50000 tonnes in April 2013. After making seasonal adjustments, the Copper markets were in production surplus of 106000 tonnes. The world copper markets were in surplus of 266000 tonnes in the first four months of 2013.
Favoring Copper was the rise of Euro against the Dollar. The US currency was trading at 1.3174 against the Euro, up 0.22 percent. The currency tested a high of 1.3138 and a low of 1.3191. LME benchmark Copper prices was trading at $ 6997 per tonne, against $ 6924 per tonne last week. Indian Copper contract was trading at Rs 419.7 per kg, up 1.23 percent. The prices tested a high of Rs 419.95 per kg. Resistance for the contract is at Rs 420 per kg.
Source by Commodity Insights

Technical Comment For the Day: Copper

Copper.......
The potential for Copper gaining ground is getting limited while the trading band is increasing significantly. Last night, the differential between the highs and lows was Rs 10, which is quite high and indicates the level of volatility this market has been facing. Caution is therefore advised in Copper moves. The prices are expected to get weak near Rs 419 per kg, which is the initial support zone for Copper. The selling can take it close to Rs 414 per kg.
SELL COPPER AT 418.5 TARGET 414 SL 420
Source by Commodity Insights

Oil Slips On Profit Taking

Oil.......

Crude oil futures slipped in the Asia electronic session trading as investors booked profits after the metal rallied yesterday buoyed by a drop in U.S. supplies that was nearly three times more than expected.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration in its weekly crude oil report said U.S. commercial crude oil inventories dived 6.90 million barrels to 367.00 million barrels last week, but are in the upper half of the average range for this time of year. The week before, crude oil inventories dipped 9.90 million barrels to 373.90 million barrels.
Late Tuesday, data from the API revealed that U.S. crude oil inventories shed 2.60 million barrels
NYMEX light sweet crude oil futures are trading down 26 cents at $ 106.09 per barrel. Yesterday, it added 48 cents, or 0.5%, to settle at $106.48 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract fell 32 cents on Tuesday.
Meantime, U.S. crude oil imports during the week averaged 7.70 million barrels per day last week, up by 180,000 barrels per day from the previous week, official data revealed. Over the last four weeks, imports have averaged 7.70 million barrels per day, which were 1.10 million barrels per day below the same four-week period last year.
Comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke during his first day of Congressional testimony contributed to oil’s up and down price movements. The Fed chief was due to speak before the Senate later Thursday.
MCX July crude oil futures may open today’s session near Rs 6291 with support around Rs 6260 levels.
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Oil Slips Below $106 In Mixed Asia

Oil........

Crude oil futures slipped in the mixed Asia trading today with the dollar trading slightly higher ahead of the Bernanke testimony.
In Asia, the Hong Kong stocks rose and Japanese shares fell ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s congressional testimony later in the day. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index climbed 0.6%, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 added 0.1%, and South Korea’s Kospi gained 0.8%, with all of them reversing early losses.
Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average fell 0.7% in Tokyo afternoon trading after ending at a seven-week high Tuesday, while the Shanghai Composite lost 0.2%, after changing direction a few times.
NYMEX light sweet crude oil is trading down 16 cents at $ 105.85 per barrel extending yesterday’s 32 cent loss during regular New York Mercantile Exchange trading.
Oil gave further ground after the Nymex close as the American Petroleum Institute reported a 2.6-million-barrel drop in U.S. crude inventories for the week ended July 12. A Platts survey of analysts had forecast a decrease of 2.5 million barrels.
Strength in the U.S. dollar also pressurized oil today. The ICE dollar index edged up to 82.658 from late Tuesday’s 82.599 levels. A rising U.S. currency can dampen prices of dollar-denominated oil by making it more expensive in other currencies.
Forex markets are on edge ahead of congressional testimony from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, due later Wednesday and again on Thursday. In comments last week, Bernanke had eased concerns that the Fed would quickly unwind its monetary stimulus, with the remarks weighing on the dollar.
MCX July crude oil futures may open today’s session near Rs 6220 levels with support near Rs 6190 – 70 levels.
Source by Commodity Insights

Gold Slightly Higher Ahead Of Testimony

Gold futures are trading slightly higher in the Asia electronic trades today with investors focusing on the Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on 16th semi-annual testimony before both houses of Congress on Wednesday and Thursday.
Gold futures for August delivery are trading up $1 at $ 1293 per ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. It settled at $1,290.40 an ounce, up $6.90, or 0.5%. Prices also gained 0.5% on Monday.
Gold futures gained on Tuesday for a second straight session with investors waiting for Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's congressional testimony this week for hints on the central bank's next move on monetary policy.
US Dollar Index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, fell 0.65% to trade at $82.65.
In other currencies, the Indian rupee opened higher by 26 paise at 59.05 on per dollar on Wednesday versus 59.31 Tuesday.
The euro rose to 1.31 to the dollar. The dollar index slipped below the 83 mark ahead of testimony by Federal Reserve Chief Ben Bernanke.
MCX August gold futures may open today’s session near Rs 26420 levels with resistance near Rs 26550 levels and support near Rs 26370-50 levels.
Source by Commodity Insights

Shanghai Weekly Inventories Data- 12 July 2013

Source by Commodity Insights

Copper Caught In Confusing Trade, LME Prices Under $7000 After 3% Gain Yesterday

Copper......

MCX Copper

futures are off from their recent highs as some profit selling is emerging in the commodity on account of Chinese growth worries. The LME three-month copper had surged around 3% yesterday on the accommodative stance of the US Fed but pared back some of these gains today and currently quotes under the key $7000 per tonne mark. The COMEX Copper is also down nearly half a percent at $3.1605 per pound.

China's economic growth rate will likely average 7% this year, Chinese Finance Minister Lou Jiwei said yesterday, according to media reports. This is much below the government's 7.5% target and would mark a slowing from 7.7% growth reported for the first quarter of this year. However, Lou also said the economy would not suffer a hard landing and that the slower growth was necessary for the reforms that the government is undertaking to further open up the economy and move away from dependence on exports.

Data out earlier in the week showed that Chinese copper imports of refined metal, alloy and products were 379,951 tonnes in June, the highest since September. China consumes some 42% of the world's copper. However, much of this spurt could be construed as traders taking advantage of low prices in LME compared to that in Shanghai and as such, would be a mere arbitrage play. The latest headline export data from China confirms that the actual demand from export heavy Chinese industries is poor. China's exports slipped 3.1% in June from a year earlier, the first decline since January 2012, the Customs Administration said on Wednesday.

The US dollar is quoting around 1.3070 against the Euro, coming off its three week low after a massive hammering yesterday. This is exerting some pressure on copper and other commodities. MCX Copper tested a high of Rs 425.25 per kg last night and closed the session with a gain of Rs 11.05 per kg with a 4% increase in open interest. The counter is quoting at Rs 420.30; down Rs 2.75 per kg on the day with around 5% increase in open interest so far. This is a trifle unclear pattern and the meta could hold on only if it maintains above Rs 420 levels.

Source by Commodity Insights

COMEX Gold Off Highs As $1300 Acts As Stiff Resistance

Gold......

MCX Gold

futures for August are witnessing a mild sell off today. The commodity rose impressively yesterday on ideas that the Fed is in no hurry to cutback on its asset purchases. The metal shot up near $1300 per ounce in as the dollar slipped and equities rallied. The yellow metal had consolidated around $1250 per ounce earlier in the week. Gold had eased after a strong US non-farm payrolls data on Friday but has added impressive gains as prices managed to stay above $1200 per ounce. COMEX Gold futures currently trade at $1281.50, up $1.60 per ounce on the day.

Gold futures shot up towards $1300 per ounce after the US Federal Reserve's policy meeting minutes showed officials were split on the future of the central bank's stimulus program. About half the Fed officials believe the central bank should end its $85 billion-a-month bond-buying program by the end of this year, suggesting the policy makers are divided on the timing of the coming wind-down of the program. Many other participants anticipated that it likely would be appropriate to continue purchases into 2014, the minutes from the June 18-19 meeting said.

Gold jumped after this, which fanned hopes that the easy money measure wouldn't be removed sooner than expected. Gold has benefited from the Fed's stimulus program, as many traders bought the haven asset to protect against perceived risks like higher inflation and a weaker US dollar. Now, these traders worry gold prices will struggle in the absence of the supportive measure.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) stated yesterday that the country's economy is starting to recover modestly, marking the first time that the economy is in an expansionary mode. The upbeat assessment of the economy came as the BoJ left its huge monetary easing programme unchanged. The bank is to stick to its plan of pumping more than 60tn yen ($606bn; £402bn) a year into the economy. Japan's economy is expected to recover moderately on the back of the resilience in domestic demand and the pick-up in overseas economies, the BoJ said in a statement.

These factors had supported the global stocks yesterday and US markets also followed suit with the S&P hitting a record closing high. However, Gold slipped from highs near $1300, failing to edge higher and dropped further today amid a mixed undertone in the Asian stocks. The physical demand for gold remains in a decent shape and the recent price destruction is reportedly bringing in good buying from retail investors and central banks in emerging countries. The MCX Gold futures are consolidating around Rs 26700 per 10-gram level mark. The counter is quoting at Rs 26670, down Rs 7 per 10 grams on the day after hitting highs above Rs 26850 yesterday.

Source by Commodity Insights

Federal Reserve Accommodative Policy Lends Support To Copper

Copper........

US Federal Reserve accommodative policy for near terms has extended helping hand for ailing Copper

. World GDP forecast decline and Chinese weak exports data on a cumulative six months were a cause of concern for prices.

US Federal Reserve governor said that the accommodative monetary policy is likely to continue in the near term and that the US jobs data released last week was not taken into consideration in the policy minutes released yesterday.

Dollar has weakened sharply on Thursday following the bashing from last night. The Dollar was at 1.3132, down 0.88 percent. The statement of Ben Bernanke has helped the metal. Markets will now focus on the report of initial jobless claims, as well as on the data on import prices.

China trade data released last night showed a drop of 0.7 percent in exports and imports. The data of fall in Chinese imports on a cumulative six months basis was cornered as markets focused on the rise of yearly imports by 9.8 percent to 379951 tonnes.

LME three month benchmark prices of Copper were trading at $ 6951 per tonne, up $ 166 per tonne. Red metal settled at $ 6784 per tonne. Indian Copper settled at Rs 412 per kg, up 0.8 percent. The prices tested a high of Rs 412.5 per kg and a low of Rs 405 per kg.

Steel material Nickel was trading at $ 181 per tonne, at $ 13731 per tonne. MCX Nickel settled trading at Rs 816.6 per kg, up 1.35 percent. The prices tested a high of Rs 821 per kg and a low of Rs 798.8 per kg.

Source by Commodity Insights

Commodities Buzz: World Aluminium Demand To Rise By 7% Says Alcoa

Aluminum........
Leading global Aluminum mining company Alcoa has stuck to its forecast of 7% growth in global aluminium demand this year, led by a roughly 10% increase for aerospace. World Aluminium prices slipped by around 8% during the April-through-June quarter, hurting the aluminium mining and smelting end of Alcoa.

The company reported a second-quarter loss of $US119 million, compared with a loss of $US2 million a year earlier.

However, the other parts of Alcoa's business - the sale of aluminium sheets and parts such as fasteners - are growing as carmakers and aircraft manufacturers use more aluminium for better fuel efficiency.

US consumers who delayed car purchases during the recession bought more than 7.8 million vehicles from January through June, the auto industry's best first half since 2007.This trend is likely to augur well for Alcoa.
Source by Commodity Insights

Gold Rallies Towards $1260 As Recovery Extends

Gold......

MCX Gold futures for August witnessed continued buying support today, adding to the gains in the last session. Global prices rallied on continued weakness in US dollar and bargain hunting. The global prices staged an impressive turnaround yesterday as traders eyed the fall in the metal after a strong US non-farm payrolls data on Friday. COMEX Gold futures edged up to highs well above $1258.70 per ounce and currently trade at $1257.60, up $22.70 per ounce on the day.

The US dollar continued to eased from its six week high against the Euro. The currency was supported on Friday after the US non-farm payroll comes in much stronger than expected, with 195,000 new jobs created in June. Employment rose in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, retail trade, health care, and financial activities. However, the critical unemployment rate remained stuck at 7.4%.

Meanwhile, the Indian gold imports data came in just around the expectations. Gold imports into India, the world's biggest buyer of the metal, fell a whopping 80% to 31.5 tonne in June from the previous month, according to media reports. However, this is likely to reverse in coming weeks as spot prices around Rs 26500 levels yet again push demand ahead of the festive season.

The physical demand for gold remains in a decent shape and the recent price destruction is reportedly bringing in good buying from retail investors and central banks in emerging countries. The MCX Gold futures for August hit a high of Rs 26296 per 10 grams in the early moves and eased a little. The Indian Rupee also appreciated a little, recovering after plummeting to its all time low against the US dollar in last session. The MCX Gold future quote at Rs 26280, up Rs 173 per 10 grams or 0.66% on the day with a generous 8% rise in the open interest.
Source by Commodity Insights

Technical Buying At the Beginning of Third Quarter Brings Cheer In Copper

Copper.......
Copper cheered on Monday and continued to move higher on Tuesday as the technical buying supported the metals. Almost all the metals posted gains as bottom fishing acted as a savior. Till the end of second quarter, Copper upside remained capped by concerns over tight liquidity in China that could weigh on demand.
Copper leapt 3.4% from Friday's close to $6,978 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange late in the day, building on earlier gains over supply concerns. It led a rally in all base metals, as a technical recovery compensated for a sell-off in recent weeks after European and U.S. manufacturing index data came in a bit stronger.
Copper's gains were due in part to uncertainties over how soon the Mongolian government will allow Rio Tinto to start shipping copper concentrates from its major new Oyu Tolgoi mine project, which is already in an advanced ramp-up stage and has its permits.
Eurostat said consumer price inflation rose by a seasonally adjusted 1.6% in June, in line with forecasts and up from May's 1.4% reading. The rate stands below the European Central Bank's target of near but just below 2%.
In another report, Eurostat said that the euro zone's unemployment rate rose to a seasonally adjusted 12.1% in May, from April's reading of 12%.
Meanwhile, US Institute for Supply Management said its index of purchasing managers rose to 50.9 in June from a reading of 49.0 in May.
LME three month forward prices of Copper ended at $ 6918 per tonne. The prices were last seen trading at $ 6952 per tonne. Meanwhile, MCX Copper closed at Rs 417.1 per kg, up 2.5 percent. The prices are resisted at Rs 420 per kg, while support is at Rs 415 per kg.
Source by Commodity Insights

MCX Gold Stays Lower As Rupee Gains

Gold.......
MCX gold futures are trading lower in the European electronic trades today pressurized by gains in the Indian Rupee against the US Dollar. On the economic front later today investors will assess manufacturing activity reports from the euro zone and the U.S.
MCX August bullion futures are trading down nearly Rs 40 at Rs 25628 per 10 grams. A break of Rs 26690 levels is required to move in the bullish zone with resistance near Rs 25800 levels.
The rupee today rose by 10 paise to 59.29 against the dollar in early trade at the Interbank Foreign Exchange market on increased selling of the US currency by exporters. Strengthening of the euro against the dollar in overseas market and a better trend in the domestic equity market also supported the rupee, forex dealers said.
The rupee had rose by a staggering 80 paise, its biggest single-day gain in last nine months, to close at 59.39 amid signs of strong fund inflows on Friday. Meanwhile, the BSE benchmark Sensex rose by nearly 140 points to 19,533.
Gold for August delivery rose $16.8 to $1,240.5 an ounce in electronic trade. The precious metal on Friday closed the second quarter with loss of 23%, the worst quarterly decline since modern trading began in the mid-1970s.
Separate reports released Monday showed further slowing in China’s manufacturing sector in June. China is a major consumer of gold.
The Chinese government reported its manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) dropped to 50.1 from 50.8 in May. A separate survey from HSBC showed its own monthly PMI declining to 48.2 in June from 49.2 in May. A reading below 50 shows deterioration in activity, while one above signals an improvement.
Source by Commodity Insights

Indian Rupee Edges Lower

The Indian rupee edged lower on Monday, July 01, 2013 driven mainly by dollar demand by oil marketing companies and banks. The currency however managed to register a small rebound as strength in the local share market aided some gains in the unit. The domestic currency commenced weaker by 9 paise at Rs 59.47 to a dollar and edged down to a low of 59.48 before bouncing back to a high of 59.22 so far during the day. In the spot currency market, the Indian unit was last seen trading at 59.25, lower by around 14 paise or 0.23% as compared to its previous close at 59.39.
Domestic key benchmark indices moved into positive after a lower start triggered by weak Asian stocks. Asian stocks got off to an uninspired start to the week, while the U.S. dollar held firm at one-month highs after an influential Federal Reserve official suggested September could be the beginning of the end of easy money from the central bank.
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) bought Indian shares worth a net Rs 1124.31 crore on Friday, 28 June 2013, as per provisional data from the stock exchanges. At the time of writing, the S&P BSE Sensex was up 14.72 points or 0.08% to 19,410.53 while the CNX Nifty was up 2 points or 0.03% to 5,844.20.
The dollar was holding broadly firm on Monday after a flood of month-end flows left it well positioned for a week packed with major economic data and central bank meetings.
Source by Commodity Insights

Oil Slips As China Manufacturing Weakens

Oil........
Crude oil futures slipped below $97 a barrel in the Asia electronic session today as a further slowdown in manufacturing activity in China raised demand concerns from the world's second-largest oil consumer.
Asian markets on Monday began a new quarter on a weak footing as a further slowdown in manufacturing activity in China, South Korea and Taiwan raised concerns about the health of those economies.
Australia's S&P/ASX 200 tumbled 1.6% as the country began a new financial year. Japan's Nikkei Stock Average gave up 0.5%, South Korea's Kospi lost 0.2%, and Taiwan's Taiex shed 0.3%. China's Shanghai Composite dropped 0.4% in choppy trading, resuming its downtrend after snapping a seven-day losing streak on Friday. Hong Kong markets were closed for a holiday.
The day's broad losses came as two separate surveys in China showed a further loss of momentum in factory activity. An officially sponsored reading of the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index for June dropped to 50.1 from 50.8 in May. Another survey by HSBC showed the monthly PMI falling to 48.2 in June from 49.2 in May.
Light sweet crude futures for delivery in August are trading down 20 cents at $ 96.36 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil futures rose 2.65% on the week. For the quarter, however, oil declined nearly 1%, as a combination of concerns over an end to the Fed's assets purchase program and fears over a deepening slowdown in China weighed.
Oil prices hit a session high of $97.82 a barrel on Friday, the strongest level since June 20, as a series of upbeat U.S. data releases during the week boosted optimism over the U.S. economic recovery.
MCX July crude oil futures may open today's session near Rs 5740 levels with support around Rs 5700 levels.
Oil traders now look ahead to this week's highly-anticipated U.S. nonfarm payrolls data for indications of how the recovery in the U.S. labor market is progressing. Any improvement in the U.S. economy was likely to reinforce the view that the Federal Reserve will begin to taper its bond purchase program in the coming months.
Source by Commodity Insights

Gold Starts July In Good Mood

Gold......
Gold futures began the month of July in a good mood after losing more than $200 to the low of $1179.4 an ounce triggered by growing expectations the Federal Reserve will begin to taper off its bond-buying program by the end of this year. The weakness in Asian equities is also providing some boost to the yellow metal.
Asian markets on Monday began a new quarter on a weak footing as a further slowdown in manufacturing activity in China, South Korea and Taiwan raised concerns about the health of those economies.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 tumbled 1.6% as the country began a new financial year. Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average gave up 0.5%, South Korea’s Kospi lost 0.2%, and Taiwan’s Taiex shed 0.3%. China’s Shanghai Composite dropped 0.4% in choppy trading, resuming its downtrend after snapping a seven-day losing streak on Friday. Hong Kong markets were closed for a holiday.
Gold futures for August delivery are trading up $ 17 at $ 1241 per ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The metal may find support near $1180 levels- nearly 3 year low level with resistance near $1215 levels. Gold lost 4.8% on the week.
For the quarter, the precious metal declined nearly 23%, the largest quarterly loss on record, amid speculation the Fed will start to unwind its bond purchasing program in the coming months. Gold prices are on track to post a loss of 27% on the year, the worst yearly decline since 1981, after rising in each of the past 12 years.
In the last fortnight prices have dropped by nearly 15% – the steepest fall in 30 years – on persistent worries over the U.S. Federal Reserve's plan to wind down its monetary stimulus. Gold is used by investors as a hedging bet against rising inflation, but fears of a reduction in QE are damping concerns of higher prices because less central bank cash will ultimately flow into financial institutions.
MCX August gold futures may open today’s session near Rs 25700 levels with resistance near Rs 25800 levels.
Gold traders now looked ahead to Friday’s highly-anticipated U.S. nonfarm payrolls data for indications of how the recovery in the U.S. labor market is progressing. Any improvement in the U.S. economy could scale back expectations for further easing, putting upward pressure on U.S. yields and boosting the dollar.
Source by Commodity Insights

Gold Plummets Under $1200

Gold.....

MCX Gold futures dropped under Rs 25000 per 10-gram levels as the meltdown in the metal continued. The global prices tested their fresh three year lows and looked headed for further losses as $1200 per ounce mark gave up. Global markets were mixed but Gold continued to ease. The COMEX Gold futures gave up after a failed attempt to stay above $1200 in Asia and currently trades at $1193.40, down nearly 20 dollars on the day.

Euro gained from its three week low against the US dollar today as supportive data boosted the sentiments for the single currency. German retail sales were better than expected in May, as consumers returned to the shops after being kept away for months by the cold and rainy weather, data from the Federal Statistics Office showed Friday. Retail sales in May increased 0.8% from April, following three consecutive months of declines, beating economists' forecasts of a 0.3% drop in sales. The data are inflation-adjusted and also consider calendar effects.

The rise in sales comes as a robust labor market and buoyant consumer confidence boost households' spending prospects. German jobless claims in June dropped 12,000 on the month in seasonally adjusted terms, pushing down unemployment to its lowest level since December 2012, data from the country's BA labor agency showed Thursday. German consumer sentiment, meanwhile, is close to a six-month high, according to the GfK research institute.

The MCX Gold futures for August are quoting at Rs 24862, down around 25 on the day a massive rise of 10 % in open interest.
Source by Commodity Insights

Oil Rallies In Tandem With Equities

Oil........

Crude oil futures rallied to one week highs above $97 a barrel boosted by gains in equities and the positive data releases from US.
Japanese stocks shot higher Friday, as an overnight advance on Wall Street and a weakened yen combined with upbeat industrial-production data to lift sentiment, while other Asian markets also saw gains.
Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average jumped another 3.3% on top of Thursday’s 3% rally, recording a climb of more than 30% in the first half of 2013. The broader Topix improved by 3.2%, as the U.S. dollar advanced toward the ¥99-handle, with analysts eyeing further weakness for Japan’s currency.
Light sweet crude futures for delivery in August are trading up 7 cents at $ 97.14 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It rose to one-week high on Thursday, after official data showed that U.S. jobless claims declined last week while consumer spending increased last month.
The data came after the Department of Labor said the number of people who filed for unemployment assistance in the U.S. last week fell by 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 346,000, compared to expectations for a drop of 10,000 to 345,000.
A separate report showed that U.S. personal spending was up 0.3% in May, in line with expectations. The data also showed personal income increased 0.5%, above expectations for a 0.2% increase.
Investors had scaled back expectations that the Federal Reserve will start tapering bond purchases this year following a downward revision to U.S. first quarter growth on Wednesday.
The Fed’s stimulus program is viewed by many investors as a key driver in boosting the price of commodities as it tends to depress the value of the dollar.
Meanwhile, oil prices drew further support after official data showed that profits at China’s industrial companies jumped 15.5% in May from a year earlier, higher than April’s 9.3% gain. Market sentiment received a further boost amid improvement in China’s strained money markets.
MCX July crude oil futures may open today’s session near Rs 5855 levels with resistance near Rs 5890 levels.
Source by Commodity Insights

Economic Buzz: Global FDI Sees Massive Drop In 2012 Says UNCTAD

Global foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows dropped by 18% to US$1.35tn in 2012. Recovery to more vigorous investment levels will take longer than expected, mostly because of global economic fragility and policy uncertainty, UNCTAD's (United Nations Conference on Trade and Development) annual survey of investment trends reports stated today. Developing countries make up four of the top five host economies. Six of the top 10 prospective host countries also come from the developing world, with Mexico and Thailand appearing for the first time. Among developed countries, Japan jumped three positions largely because of reconstruction efforts after the 2011 tsunami, and recent expansionary monetary policies have together increased the country's attractiveness for foreign investment in the medium term. At the same time, Australia, the Russian Federation and the United Kingdom slipped down the rankings from last year's survey, while Germany gained two positions.
Source by Commodity Insights

Hot Commodities: Gold Continues Its Downward Trend, Plummets Under $1200

Gold.......

Gold futures continued its downward trend in the European session today with the precious metal set for solid losses for the month of June.
European stock markets opened higher on Friday, with the week set to end on a positive note, in the wake of soothing comments by U.S. Federal Reserve officials. U.S. sentiment data and another wave of Fed speakers are on the calendar for Friday. FTSE 100 index rose 0.4% to 6,265.15, while the French CAC 40 index rose 0.2% to 3,768.37. The German DAX 30 index rose 0.4% to 8,019.27.
Today, the metal is also under pressure due to gains in the global equity markets. Gold for August delivery is trading down $11.6 at $1,200 an ounce, after having hit an intraday low of $1,179.40. The yellow metal is about to end the month of June down more than $200 an ounce.
Gold prices remained on a downward spiral Thursday, even as three Federal Reserve officials suggested the markets had overreacted after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's remarks last week that the central bank may start slowing the pace of stimulus as early as this year.
Such a move would be based on improvement in the economy that's in line with the Fed's forecasts, Bernanke had said. Speculation that the end of Fed stimulus would arrive sooner rather than later hit gold futures hard this month, as so-called quantitative easing has been credited for supporting a rally in gold in recent years.
Wells Fargo Advisors joined the downgrades for gold along with Goldman Sachs, Credit Suisse and HSBC this week. Wells Fargo Advisors cut its year-end target range for gold, saying it now expects to see prices settle at $1,225 to $1,325 an ounce. It has previously expected prices to end the year at $1,475 to $1,525 an ounce.
Gold production in China, the world's largest producer, is expected to rise about 10% this year to a record even as bullion prices slump, the nation's mining association said, according to media reports. The country recorded output of 403 tonnes last year. Production gained 12% in the first four months from a year earlier to 122.89 tonnes, according to the producer-funded China Gold Association.
MCX August gold futures tumbled below Rs 25000 earlier today down nearly Rs 400 per 10 grams. A fall below Rs 24900 may take it towards Rs 24700 levels today.
Source by Commodity Insights

Crude Oil Manages Steady Gains In Global Markets

Oil.......

MCX Crude oil futures traded sideways as a bounce in Indian Rupee from its all time lows near 61 per US dollar undercut the gains in the overseas prices. Modest gains in Asian and European stocks kept crude supported and the WTI futures managed to hit a high above $96 per barrel. The commodity currently quotes at $95.81, up 31 cents per barrel. Prices topped out at their four-month high last week.

Stocks were supported today around the world. US gross domestic product expanded at a 1.8% annual rate in the first quarter, compared with the previously reported 2.4 percent pace, lending a cautionary note on economic recovery. This data could mean that Fed might not act in a very fleeting manner as regards unwinding of its asset buying. In a keenly awaited move, the US Federal Reserve indicated last week that it would begin to taper its bond-buying program later this year. Ben Bernanke, the Fed chief told a news conference that the Fed expects to 'moderate the monthly pace of purchases later this year'.

Meanwhile, oil remains capped on the upside. Concerns over China's economic outlook are also weighing on oil after data last Thursday showed that manufacturing activity hit a nine-month low in June. China's HSBC preliminary manufacturing purchasing managers' index fell to 48.3 in June from 49.2 in May as new orders declined, indicating that the slowdown in manufacturing is worsening.

The US dollar continued to liner around its three week high against the Euro. It oil might not rise much in evening if the dollar continues to hold on. MCX July crude oil futures are quoting at Rs 5786, down Rs 9 per barrel on the day. Prices had rose to a high of Rs 5835 per barrel earlier as the Rupee crumbled towards 61 per dollar.
Source by Commodity Insights

Agri Buzz : India Secure Strong Export Orders At $300 Per Tonne

Riding on the strictest multi-layer quality checks mounted by the Food Corporation of India (FCI), Indian wheat has secured comparatively better price in the international market, with the latest lot up for sale crossing the CBOT (Chicago Board of Trade) price by nearly 50 dollars per tonne.
According to the latest tender opened, India got 300.10 dollars per tonne for the lot offered for export as compared to the July future price of CBOT (260 dollars) as on June 3. About four million tonnes (MT) of wheat, exported so far by the FCI, have got an average price of 311.69 dollars per tonne.
An FCI official said the exports this year have proved that the corporation's wheat has a wider and higher acceptability in the international market. “We got a very good response to our wheat despite a drop in the global demand,” he added.
After a long gap, the government had this year allowed export of 4.5 million tonnes of wheat, thanks to a stupendous rise in the production and the excess stock in the country. Earlier, during 2002-04, India had exported it on a commercial basis. However, prices were not so attractive then.
Of the export target, 4.03 million tonnes has already been despatched. The reserve price for export of the initial lot of 2 million tonnes was just 228 dollars per tonne, while for the second lot it was fixed at 300 dollars per tonne.
“There is a huge demand for our wheat now,” said the FCI official. “We get prices as good as that of Australian Soft Wheat, one of the best in the world. The exports have proved the acceptability of our wheat in the international market,” he said.
The main buyers for Indian wheat are South Korea (10,01,789 mt), Ethiopia (6,80,358 mt), Bangladesh (6,75,432 mt), Yemen (3,06,519 mt), Thailand (2,71,767 mt) and Indonesia (2,10,700 mt). Besides, the buyer-countries also included Sharjah, Dubai, Sudan, Oman, Qatar, Vietnam, Malaysia and the Philippines.
FCI has exported the wheat through agencies like STC, PEC and MMTC. Mundra port in Gujarat handled the largest quantify of export, followed by Kandla — also in the Kutch area of the western Indian state. The main players in the international wheat market are USA, Canada, Ukraine, Australia, Russia and Argentina.
“We have a multi-layer quality check to ensure that the Indian wheat gets a credible brand,” the official explained. “The samples were first sent for tests at the Directorate of Wheat Research at Karnal (Haryana) for chemical parameters. Besides the tests by the buyer-representatives, FCI also made sure of tests to prevent rejection of shipments. We exported the wheat only after the buyers got satisfied themselves about the product.”
He said FCI could secure better price if the handling process was fully mechanised. “Non-mechanisation of the handling process is one factor that makes us uncompetitive in the international market. Otherwise, we get highly encouraging feedbacks from the buyers when we meet them,” he noted.
Source by Commodity Insights

Economic Buzz: U.K Q1 GDP Revised Down To 0.30%

The U.K.'s Office for National Statistics said gross domestic product expanded at a seasonally adjusted rate of 0.3% during the first quarter, in line with expectations and unchanged from a previous estimate.

Annualized GDP grew at a rate of 0.3% in the first quarter, downwardly revised from a previous forecast of 0.6% growth. Analysts expected annualized GDP to remain unchanged at 0.6%.
Source by Commodity Insights

Commodities Buzz: Falling Gold Price Raises Red Flag For SA Miners

Gold..........
The Gold price tumbled as much as 4% on Wednesday, touching a low last seen in August 2010 and potentially endangering the future of some of South Africa's top gold mining houses if the fall continues. The top three JSE-listed gold shares — Anglo Gold Ashanti, Harmony Gold and Gold Fields — have shed a combined R100bn in value so far this year, underlining concerns over the sector's future. Predictions that gold could fall under $1,000/oz as expansionary monetary policies are reined in, especially in the US, are putting further pressure on gold miners. The companies are also facing surging labor unrest, and wage demands ranging from 60% increases to a whopping 100%.
The JSE gold index is down 23% this month for a 48% loss so far this year. Harmony and AngloGold shares have lost 54% and 49%, respectively, since the start of the year, while Gold Fields has given up 47% since Sibanye Gold was unbundled on February 11.The gold industry is under attack from all sides, said independent analyst Ian Cruickshanks. With the price in bear market territory, it is very difficult to make an investment case for the sector and its future in South Africa is limited.
Earlier this week, the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union tabled a 100% wage demand for all unskilled and semiskilled employees in the gold industry, raising fears of a strike and attendant consequences for production if its demands were not met. The National Union of Mineworkers tabled a 60% wage demand last month.
Spot gold fell to lows of $1,236.25oz on Wednesday, which analysts deemed unsustainable for the bulk of South Africa's gold mines.” The gold spot could go as low as $1,000/oz, further impacting gold miners negatively from the cost point of view. The $1,300/oz is, on average, the break-even point for gold companies to produce gold profitably, said Rezco Asset Management investment director RobSpanjaard.
The dollar-denominated metal has lost 25% in value this year as investors cut back their positions amid expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will wind down its cheap money policy.Gold is susceptible to so many exogenous factors. Investors had previously bought gold to hedge themselves against the threat of global inflation as a result of the US's easy monetary policy, Sasfin Securities portfolio manager Nicholas Sorour said.
The metal is also generally perceived as a haven from collapse scenarios, and demand will tend to wane when market players feel better about the global economy.Rand Merchant Bank analysts said the fall in the gold price has not hit the rand yet but we are increasingly concerned that the Fed tapering is going to generate a further bear market in South Africa's commodity export prices.
The Fed's action, along with liquidity trouble in China's interbank market, was adding to commodity price woes, Standard Bank analysts said.
Source by Commodity Insights

MCX Silver Breaks Below Rs 40000

Silver......

After trading a range bound manner for nearly 2 months, silver prices finally got the downward direction. The white metal slumped below Rs 40000 per kg today as the upbeat US data released yesterday supported the view that the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of monetary stimulus this year.
MCX July silver futures tumbled to as low as Rs 39325 per kg today. The metal had fallen by nearly 10% so far this month; however the fall in prices has been curbed by the extra soft Indian Rupee. The Indian Rupee has fallen by more than 5% so far this month to low of nearly 60 per dollar. The counter should find support near Rs 39000-37000 levels in the near term.
The international silver futures have been hurt more severely due to sharp appreciation in the US dollar. COMEX July silver futures tumbled below $19 an ounce, falling nearly 17% so far in June 2013.
The dollar-denominated commodities felt the pinch from a rise in the U.S. dollar against key rivals, with the greenback looking for a sixth consecutive day of gains. The buck rose Tuesday after a report showed U.S. sales of new homes rose 2.1% in May, the fastest rate since mid-2008, and the Case-Shiller April home-price index jumped 2.5% in April, the largest monthly growth on record.47070
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke last week indicated the central bank may slow the pace of bond buying as early as this year if the economy continues to improve within its forecasts. The Fed currently buys $85 billion a month in U.S. Treasurys.
Later Wednesday, the U.S. Commerce Department is slated to release the third estimate of gross domestic product for the first quarter.
Source by Commodity Insights